Signs of Adoption - The Daily Gwei #437
Signs of froth are indistinguishable from signs of adoption.
The Super Bowl took place in the U.S yesterday and with it came a bunch of crypto ads from major players like Coinbase and FTX. These ads made waves and were unique in their own ways, but they also triggered some negative sentiment with people saying that the ads were “top signals”. Of course, some of this rhetoric was in jest, but some of it was also serious - which just confused me.
These Super Bowl ads are quite literally going to lead to more people falling down the rabbit hole and thus more adoption - so why are people bearish about this? How is more adoption a negative thing? How is crypto going from something fringe to something normalized not what we all want? I sometimes feel like I’m taking crazy pills because of how people will say they want adoption but “not like that” - they simply want adoption to happen their way (whatever this is). It’s a weird phenomenon to be honest - people getting upset over something not happening in the way they envisioned even though the result is more or less the same.
I think there are people out there who will look for literally any reason to be bearish on crypto. Sometimes they just don’t want the technology to succeed at all, sometimes they’re upset because they blew themselves up and don’t have a position anymore, sometimes they just can’t deal with crypto not being fringe anymore and sometimes they’re just upset over missing crypto’s rise thus far. Though whatever the reason, deep down they know there is absolutely nothing they can do to stop the adoption of crypto/web3 - so they resort to doing whatever they can to rationalise this so that they can feel just that little bit better about themselves.
Now, I’m not saying that there isn’t extensive froth in crypto (there quite clearly is), but over time it becomes much harder to distinguish signs of froth from signs of adoption. For example, people said that the NFT ecosystem was way too frothy mid-late last year and was due for a “long-term” bear market once the froth subsided. Well, the peak froth did subside, but only for a few short months - then the NFT market came roaring back and got even crazier. I think this is because NFTs are experiencing an insane level of adoption which may look like froth, but in reality it’s just a lot more new people (and money) flooding into the ecosystem.
Things are going to get much crazier than any of us can imagine over the next decade or so - we will see true mass adoption, we will see trillions of dollars flying around like it’s nothing, we will see serious concentrated efforts from governments to both shut down crypto & also embrace it and we will see a tonne of people yell about how all of this is somehow “bearish” and that everything is going to 0 because of it. My only piece of advice: ignore these people, focus on yourself & your own goals, and make peace with the fact that signs of froth are indistinguishable from signs of adoption.
Have a great day everyone,
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All information presented above is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.