Max Pain - The Daily Gwei #477
Is this the bottom?
There’s no sugar coating it - the crypto markets are currently the most bearish they have been since the 2018 bear market and I’m personally having a bit of deja vu. People are depression-posting on social media, things are starting to blow up, the noobs are well & truly gone, and the OG’s are trying to comfort everyone by telling them it’s going to be okay.
One major difference between this current bear market and 2018 is that no one is questioning Ethereum. In 2018, people were genuinely asking what the use-case for Ethereum was given that ICO’s had died and they were also asking why anyone would buy or own ETH. Of course, this sentiment reflected in the price as ETH dropped 94% in less than a year and wiped out pretty much everyone - it was a grueling time for even the most bullish Ethereans. Things didn’t get much better in 2019 either with ETH beginning and ending the year at around the same price of $130 (which BTC managed to double in price).
I think another major difference this time around is the macro environment which has gotten so bad that no one really knows what’s going to happen. Inflation in the U.S is at its highest levels since the 1980’s, equities are falling off a cliff, rates are rising, there’s still a war going on in eastern Europe, and places like China are still pursuing a covid-0 policy which is leading to all sorts of global issues. In the face of all of this, how does crypto even begin to hang on? I mean, obviously I’m still very bullish on ETH, but it’s not going to be able to survive all of those headwinds in the short-term - even with how many bullish catalysts Ethereum has ahead of it.
A lesson all of you should take away from the last 12 to 24 months is that markets are increidbly complex with an infinite number of variables to consider and most people will not be able to outperform a benchmark asset (such as ETH). What people should be doing is formulating an investment strategy that fits their own situation and sticking to it no matter what the market is doing. Obviously this is easier said than done but the best investors I know in this ecosystem have a long-term plan and stick to it.
I know it’s a meme to say this these days but bear markets are seriously the best time to both keep building and keep investing in yourself. I’m sure you’ve all noticed how much quieter the ecosystem has become and with that how much easier it is to focus on things - make the most of this while you can! Obivously I can’t guarantee you success nor can I guarantee you that you’re going to “make it” but I strongly believe that sticking around and focusing on yourself will lead to a high return on investment and with it more personal fulfilment and happiness.
Have a great day everyone,
Enjoyed today’s piece? I send out a fresh one every week day - be sure to subscribe to receive it in your inbox!
Join the Daily Gwei Ecosystem
All information presented above is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.